Improving the Predictability of Accurate Project Outcomes

Predictability, the condition to produce early and accurate forecasts for cost and schedule measures at completion and needs to have a high degree of accuracy and reliability in order to have meaningful benefit to the sponsoring organizations.

The research team concluded that the processes and tools utilized to generate, communicate, and revise a project’s cost and schedule forecast are as diverse as any other techniques used within the profession to address challenges. Importantly however, the research revealed that there were distinct and identifiable differences between effective and ineffective projects with respect to the practices they use to forecast final cost and schedule outcomes. The research team categorized these practices as follows:

1. Human behavior and organizational culture
2. Project characteristics
3. Forecasting practices
4. Management processes

These four categories form the basis of the team’s Four-casting model. Of the four, human behavior and organizational culture was the category statistically shown to have the greatest influence on predictability. The four categories of practices are presented in detail in IR291-2 including key “takeaway” findings, a list of potential predictability “derailers,” and recommended mitigation actions.

Predictability enables project teams to address project performance proactively and in a timely manner, through proper management decisions, and thus increase value to the organization. Predictability is an effective risk mitigation mechanism. (IR291-2, p. 9)

There are distinct and identifiable practices between effective and ineffective projects with respect to their ability to forecast final cost and schedule outcomes. (RS291-1, p. v)

Project team performance needs to be evaluated based on the team’s ability to mitigate cost and schedule deviations through the early and accurate prediction of cost and schedule outcomes, as opposed to the prevalent evaluation of a team’s performance based solely on the magnitude of such deviations at project completion.

RT-291 developed a numerical index to measure cost and schedule predictability performance. This resource, the Predictability Index, indicates a project team’s past ability to proactively and effectively address the events and surprises that have affected the accuracy and timeliness of its forecasts. Indeed, project teams cannot eliminate surprises (or all bad news), but they can—and should—mitigate the effect of such surprises with their early recognition, transparent and candid reporting, and full appreciation of the events that influence effective forecasting. To this end, project stakeholders are strongly encouraged to consider the importance of human behavior and organizational culture as explained in the research findings and as emphasized in the proposed predictability practices. (RS291-1, p. 47)

1. Scope changes
2. Standard, regulatory, and legal requirements
3. Engineering design
4. Work planning and execution
5. Commissioning and start-up
6. Control functions
7. Vendor/supplier and procurement
8. Economic conditions
9. Legal and social conditions
10. Force majeure

IR291-2, Four-Casting for Early Predictability

Use for continuous assessment during execution. Provides an assessment of severity or negative impact of 85 elements on predictability. This model addresses each of the four practice categories in separate chapters. Each chapter provides key “take away” findings, a list of potential predictability “de-railers,” and mitigation actions.

• Continuous evaluation of project predictability practices
• Project team member input
• Highlights practices that need attention

IR291-3, The Predictability Index – Benchmarking Project Outcome Predictions

Use this tool at project completion to provide a quantitative assessment of accuracy and timeliness of cost and schedule forecasts.

• Benchmarking predictability performance
• Quantitative and objective measure
• Timeliness and accuracy of cost and schedule forecasts