Predictive Tools: Closing the Performance Gap

The team developed a computer program “Continuous Assessment of Project Performance (CAPP)” to help project managers predict project outcomes from start of detailed design through construction completion. The team analyzed data from 54 completed projects and identified 76 continuous project variables that were helpful in predicting a project’s outcome. (RS107-1, p. 3) 

Data on these variables fed the CAPP database. Following are several examples:

• Owner Expenditures – The amount of budgeted capital expended by the owner on the project. This includes design, procurement, and construction costs, as well as contingency, land, license fees, owner management staff, and interest on borrowed capital.
• Contractor Construction Effort-Hours Expended – The number of craft efforthours expended during construction by all prime contractors and subcontractors in the form of field labor after budget appropriation
• Invoices Paid by Contractor – The total dollar amount of invoices paid by the contractor organization (includes costs for material, equipment, labor, and overhead and profit paid to subcontractors and suppliers)

The Road Map was designed to assist project teams in the successful execution of capital projects. The research team focused on cost, schedule, safety, and project objectives to identify indicators or problems and how they relate to project outcomes. A typical project life cycle was divided into six phases common within the industry: Business Planning, Pre-Project Planning, Design and Procurement, Construction, Commissioning and Startup, and Operations. The time frame in which the objectives were examined started with the business planning phase and continued through facility operation. (RS107-1, p. 9) 

The figure below explains how to read the Road Map. 

The tools can be found in the “Index of CII Tools,” an Excel file that comes with IR107-3. The “Index of CII Tools” is a listing of 298 tools identified and classified from a complete review of published CII source documents SD-1 through SD-97. Each document was researched for a procedure, program, business practice, or discrete function that could be considered a “predictive tool” that might enable a project manager to proactively improve project performance. Each tool is numbered and classified as it applies to cost, schedule, safety, or project objectives. Each tool is displayed in the Index with information as shown below. (RS107-1, p. 15)